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Hostilities From 28 February 2026 Effectively Closed Strait of Hormuz Shipping

The Story

Hostilities involving the United States and Iran broke out on 28 February 2026, and within weeks shipping through the Strait of Hormuz had effectively stopped (Source 1 + Source 2). By late April, tanker traffic had been at a standstill for nearly two months, with many vessels stranded in the Gulf (Source 1 + Source 2).

A fragile US-Iran ceasefire, mediated by Pakistan, failed to restore confidence in the corridor (Source 1). Shipowners and insurers remained reluctant to risk costly assets and crews amid ongoing insecurity, and Iranian state media said the strait was not open even after the truce (Source 1 + Source 3).

Quotes

Kieran Donnelly of the International Rescue Committee described the closure as creating a food security ticking time bomb, citing impacts well beyond the immediate region over the preceding five weeks of the crisis (Source 3 @ 7s, non-verbatim, YouTube auto-caption).

So What

The five-month gap between the 28 February outbreak and any plausible normalization spans exactly the May to August rice planting window across South and Southeast Asia. Ceasefires that don’t restore physical traffic don’t restore farmer decisions: input orders, credit, and fertilizer-application timing are all locked in before the planting calendar will wait. A diplomatic resolution in May still leaves June plantings under a shock that began in February.

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